As we near the end of the awards season, the most prestigious awards night in the film industry is fast approaching, with this year’s hopefuls crossing their fingers to get hold of their own gold Oscar at the 98th Academy Awards on the 15th of March.
This year’s nominees include jaw-dropping performances from fan favourites like Leonardo DiCaprio, Emma Stone, Timothée Chalamet, Kate Hudson, Jacob Elordi, and other worthy contenders. But who will take home the victory?
With this in mind, the experts at McLuck have scoured through past Oscar winners all the way back to 1929, analysing winner trends from age, acting credits, previous nominations, box office figures, reviews, and genres to predict the 2026 Oscars winners.
Predicted Oscars 2026 Winners Revealed
See all nominees’ chances here
Best Actor
McLuck’s study reveals that the best actor category sees common patterns, including the “overdue” effect, with many actors winning after multiple prior nominations with no luck, like the famously snubbed Leonardo DiCaprio, who won after 4 unlucky nominations, as well as Paul Newman and Al Pacino, who both were nominated 7 times before securing the win.
The typical best actor winner is normally aged between late 30s and mid 50s, with Adrien Brody as the youngest winner (29) and Anthony Hopkins winning at 83. Returning winners are unlikely to win unless their performance is considered elite, with very few actors winning this award more than once, including Daniel Day-Lewis with 3 wins and Jack Nicholson with 2. Traditionally, actors who previously won at least one of the SAG, BAFTA, or a Golden Globe awards has a much higher chance of winning in the best actor category. Furthermore, the most common career length of winners is between 20 and 30 years of acting credits, with breakout wins less common.
This year, the actor most likely to win is Ethan Hawke for his performance in Blue Moon. His transformative performance earned a spectacular response from fans and critics, with Hawke’s portrayal of the Broadway lyricist Lorenz Hart regarded as being “utterly captivating”, “sensational,” and “cinematic magic.” His award-winning work gives him a 35% chance of taking home the win, with his accolades meeting the common patterns of a winner, with the actor in his mid 50s, 4 prior nominations but no wins, 35+ years of acting, this acting veteran is well respected and very overdue for a win.
Following on from Ethan Hawke, the second most likely winner is Leonardo DiCaprio for his performance in One Battle After Another (30%). In third place, Timothée Chalamet as Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme lands him with a 15% chance of winning.
Best Supporting Actor
The best supporting actor role’s historical pattern analysis shows that most winners fall in the 25-55 age bracket, with younger wins less common but do happen, for example, Heath Ledger aged 28 for The Dark Knight, and older wins are also rarer but occasionally are seen, like Chrisphier Plummer in Beginners aged 82. Similar to the best actor category, the “overdue” factor plays its part, with wins after multiple nominations being common. Actors with strong industry respect have a higher chance, and those in roles that involve mentorship, villainy, or emotional resonance see an advantage. Multiple wins are rarer than in the best actor category.
In first place for best supporting actor, Benicio del Toro sweeps with a 38% chance of winning for his performance in One Battle After Another. Following in second place, Delroy Lindo has a 28% chance for his part in Sinners, and Jacob Elordi lands in third with 18% with his role in Frankenstein.
Best Actress
The data suggests that the typical winner for this award is aged between 28 and 45. The “overdue” effect is less common with first-time nominees very frequently winning, including Olivia Colman, Marion Cotillard, and Michelle Yeoh, but recurring winners do still sometimes emerge, such as Meryl Streep, Frances McDormand, and Katharine Hepburn. Similarly, precursor awards do indicate a higher chance of success with SAG awards, especially predictive for actresses. In terms of performances themselves, common winning roles include biographical performances, social realism dramas, and psychological breakdown roles, with psychological breakdown roles being favoured over comedies.
Jessie Buckley is expected to win the best actress award this year with her heart-wrenching performance of Agnes Shakespeare (Hathaway) in Hamnet. The film itself is nominated for eight Academy awards with Buckley hailed as an obvious winner already by critics. The Irish actress fits the mid-thirties age range, has just one nomination in the supporting category, and has been acting for over 15 years with a strong catalog of credits, making her a great fit to win the award with a 32% chance.
Following on from Jessie Buckley, the second most likely winner is Renate Reinsve for her performance in Sentimental Value (26%). In third place, Emma Stone as Michelle Fuller in Bugonia lands her with a 22% chance of winning.
Best Supporting Actress
The best supporting actress award’s historical pattern analysis shows that most winners fall in the 25-45 age bracket, with younger wins less common but do happen, for example, Anna Paquin, at 11, in The Piano. Unlike the best supporting actor category, first-time nominees often win, with repeat winners more rare. For this category, screen time is less important than impact, with younger actresses winning with “scene- stealing” moments like Beatrice Straight, the record holder for the shortest performance to win an Oscar, with only 5 minutes and 2 seconds of screen time in Network. Still, her intense emotional scene stole the show.
In first place for best supporting actress, Elle Fanning stands a 38% chance of winning for her performance in Sentimental Value. Following in second place, Wunmi Mosaku has a 27% chance for her part in Sinners, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas lands in third with 20% with her role in Sentimental Value.
Best Picture
As expected, with the best picture award, precursor awards are very predictive of the winner, with PGA, BAFTA Best Film, Golden Globes, and Critics’ Choice awards showing patterns of who will most likely win. Box office and cultural impact are both important in this category; films that generate both critical and audience enthusiasm attract votes like Parasite or Oppenheimer. Dramas, historical biopics, emotional family stories, or culturally important narratives see more success than others. Finally, casting plays a monumental part in the chance of winning this award; pictures with established casts with prestigious directors heighten the odds.
The predicted winner in this category is Sinners, which is unsurprising as the film has a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations – the most in the history of the awards. The film had a strong box office result and blends horror with drama, with a strong cultural commentary.
Following on from Sinners, the second most likely winner is One Battle After Another (28%). In third place, Hamnet has a 18% chance of winning.
